Nepal’s 73% export surge is making headlines. But is it real growth or just re-exports? We break down what’s truly made in Nepal, and what’s not.

If you've been on social media lately, you’ve probably seen the viral post: Nepal has broken all records by exporting goods worth Rs. 2 kharba 18 arba in just 10 months! That’s Rs. 218 billion, to be exact. Everyone from government ministers to news portals and even memes are celebrating this as a proud “Made in Nepal” moment.

Even the Prime Minister's official page posted a graphic with bold text saying:

"HISTORY: Made in Nepal, Made for the World"

And they’re claiming a 73% increase in exports compared to last year. Sounds amazing, right?

Well, not so fast.

What if we told you that this huge growth isn’t actually because Nepal suddenly started manufacturing world-class goods? That most of this so-called “Made in Nepal” export boom is made up of products that were imported from somewhere else, repackaged or lightly processed, and then exported again?

Let’s break it down.

What the Numbers Really Say: Yes, the Growth is Real

First, let’s give credit where it’s due. According to Nepal’s official customs data (Department of Customs), exports for the first 10 months of Fiscal Year 2081/82 (Mid-July 2024 to Mid-May 2025) hit Rs. 217.91 billion, compared to: Rs. 126.17 billion in the same period last fiscal year

That’s a jump of nearly Rs. 92 billion, or +72.7% growth.

To put it simply:

If Nepal was exporting Rs. 100 worth of goods last year, this year it’s exporting Rs. 173 for the same 10-month period.

That looks like a massive win, especially in a country where we’re always worrying about our trade deficit (i.e., we import way more than we export).

But here’s the catch: this growth isn’t coming from what you think.

Most people would assume this boom is because of things like:

• Nepali carpets
• Handicrafts
• Pashmina
• Cardamom (alaichi)
• Handmade paper
• Or perhaps some new breakthrough in our local industries...

Spoiler alert: It’s not.

In fact, over 40% of this massive Rs. 92 billion increase is due to just two products. And neither of them is truly “Made in Nepal.”

The Top Drivers of Nepal’s Export Boom: Not What You’d Expect

Alright, so let’s look under the hood.

You might be thinking, “Okay, maybe our factories started producing more, or perhaps there’s more global demand for Nepali goods.” But when we actually dig into the government’s own data line by line, product by product, here’s what we find.

Top Export #1: Refined Soybean Oil

This single item brought in over Rs. 78.7 billion (yes, that’s nearly Rs. 80 arba) in exports this year.

Last year?

Just Rs. 860.9 million.

That’s a growth of 9,047%. 

Let’s pause and think about that. That’s not normal business growth. That’s not even industrial miracle growth. That’s something else, and we’ll get to it later in the article.

Top Export #2: Refined Sunflower Oil

The second top product?

Sunflower oil. Also refined.

This year’s export: Rs. 10 billion

Last year: Rs. 159 million

That’s a 6,212% increase.

Again, these two oils alone contributed to more than 40% of the total increase in exports. Let that sink in.

“Wait, Nepal produces that much oil?”

Short answer: No.

Nepal doesn’t grow soybeans or sunflowers at a large enough scale to explain these numbers.

Here’s what’s really happening:

• We import crude or semi-processed oil from abroad (mostly from countries like Argentina or Ukraine).
• Some companies in Nepal refine or bottle it.
• Then they export it to India, duty-free.

It’s what trade experts call re-export, not genuine manufacturing. There’s some value added, sure maybe packaging, refining, maybe labeling. But the core product? It’s not made in Nepal.

So, when we celebrate these as "Made in Nepal" victories, we’re not telling the full story.

The Optical Illusion of Export Growth

It’s like buying apples from China, washing them in Nepal, then selling them to India and calling it a "Nepali fruit industry boom."

Looks good on paper. Not so great in practice.

And here’s what makes it even more complicated:

These oils are also being imported in huge volumes.

• Soybean oil: Rs. 81.89 billion imported
• Sunflower oil: Rs. 24.64 billion imported

So in many ways, we’re importing products just to export them again.

This isn’t a manufacturing miracle. It’s arbitrage; taking advantage of trade policies and tariff gaps.

So What’s Actually Going On? Welcome to the World of “Re-Export”

Okay, so by now you know Nepal's top two export “success stories” soybean oil and sunflower oil, weren’t grown or produced in Nepal from scratch.

So how exactly does this work?

Let’s break it down.

Step-by-step: The Re-Export Formula

1. Nepal imports crude soybean or sunflower oil from countries like Argentina, Ukraine, or sometimes even Malaysia.
2. Local Nepali companies do some basic processing:
   • Maybe they refine it.
   • Maybe they just bottle it.
   • Maybe they just re-label it with “Made in Nepal.”
3. Then the same oil is exported to India, under a special trade arrangement where Nepali goods go into India duty-free.

So essentially, Nepal acts like a middleman.

We didn’t farm the crops.
We didn’t produce the oil.
We just made it look nicer and passed it along.

And this “pass-along” shows up in our export figures, making it look like we created value, when in reality, the core product was never ours.

Why this is risky: It’s all built on policy loopholes

Here’s the catch:

• India gives Nepal special trade privileges under the SAFTA and bilateral trade treaties. That means Nepali products go into India without import taxes.
• But here’s the fine print: These privileges are meant for goods that are genuinely manufactured or produced in Nepal.

Now imagine if India says tomorrow:

“Hey, you’re just repackaging imported oil. That doesn’t count as a Nepali product. No more tax-free access.”

Boom. 40% of our exports disappear overnight.

This isn't just a theory. Something similar has happened before with vegetable ghee exports in the 2000s. Nepal enjoyed a similar boom by re-exporting ghee made from imported palm oil, until India changed the rules. That bubble burst.

So what we’re really exporting is opportunity risk

Right now, it may feel like we’re winning.

But this isn’t a stable, sustainable growth path. It’s more like walking on a tightrope while balancing a sack of oil.

The minute the rules change; whether it’s by India tightening trade routes or global oil prices swinging, our so-called “export miracle” will come crashing down.

What About Nepal’s Actual Products? They're Getting Drowned Out

While the headlines are busy celebrating Nepal’s Rs. 218 billion export figure, let’s pause and ask a more grounded question:

How are the products Nepal is actually known for doing?

You know, the ones that take years of skill, generations of practice, and genuine local effort to create.

Let’s look at the facts.

Cardamom (Alaichi) – Still a Hero, Quietly Holding Ground

Cardamom is one of Nepal’s top agro-exports, grown in the misty hills of Ilam, Taplejung, and Panchthar. It’s exported across the world, especially to the Middle East and South Asia.

But this year?

• FY 2080/81 exports: Rs. 6.91 billion
• FY 2081/82 exports: Rs. 6.67 billion

That’s actually a 3.5% drop.

So while we’re celebrating billions from oil exports, one of Nepal’s most authentic exports has actually declined.

Carpets – Nepal’s Traditional Pride, Now Just Treading Water

Nepali carpets, especially hand-knotted Tibetan-style ones, once led our export charts. They’re still loved in Europe and North America.

But growth?

• FY 2080/81: Rs. 8.79 billion
• FY 2081/82: Rs. 8.84 billion

That’s a growth of just 0.5%. Basically flat.

Despite the cultural value and global appeal, this sector is nowhere near the spotlight.

Readymade Garments – Real Factories, Real Jobs

Garment factories across Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, and Biratnagar employ thousands. They manufacture trousers, t-shirts, jackets; real industrial products.

And here’s something unexpected:

• Last year: only Rs. 9.15 million worth of cotton garments were exports 
• This year: Rs. 122.9 million

That’s a whopping 124.3% growth. This is an encouraging sign that local manufacturing can deliver if given support.

Handmade Paper (Lokta) – A Quiet Climber

Nepal’s handmade paper, made from lokta bark in remote mountain villages, is a symbol of sustainable, craft-based export.

• FY 2080/81: Rs. 452.6 million
• FY 2081/82: Rs. 487.9 million

That’s a 7.8% growth; slow but steady.

It’s heartening to see traditional industries like this still standing, but they could do so much more with better marketing, market access, and support.

The Real Story?

While oils we didn’t even produce contributed over Rs. 9 billion to this year’s export spike.

These core Nepali products; cardamom, carpets, garments, handmade paper combined added around Rs. 210 million in total growth.

Nepal’s real economy (the artisans, farmers, and factories), are playing second fiddle in the current export story.

The story we’re hearing is: “Nepal’s exports are booming!”

The truth we’re seeing is: “Nepal’s re-exports are booming. Our real exports? Not so much.”

Imports Are Growing Too, And They’re Fueling the Export Boom

Okay, so far we’ve seen that Nepal’s exports are up, but the biggest growth is coming from products we didn’t even make.

Which naturally leads to the next question:

If we’re exporting so much, are we also importing more?

The answer? Yes. Definitely.

Import Growth in Numbers:

According to the same official customs data:

• Imports in FY 2080/81 (first 10 months):
  Rs. 1.335 trillion
• Imports in FY 2081/82 (first 10 months):
  Rs. 1.474 trillion

That’s a jump of Rs. 139 billion, or about 10.4% increase.

So while we’re exporting more than before, we’re also buying even more from outside.

The Import-Export Loop: We're Buying to Sell

Let’s make this crystal clear:

• We imported soybean and sunflower oil worth Rs. 300 million+
• Then we exported those oils (refined) worth almost Rs. 9 billion

That’s not an export miracle, that’s a business model based on re-export.

It’s like buying sneakers from abroad, wiping them clean, boxing them nicely, and selling them across the border, and then celebrating it as a boom in Nepali shoe manufacturing.

There’s no shame in trade. But if most of your exports rely on imports, you’re not becoming a stronger economy. You’re just playing middleman, and middlemen are always at the mercy of others.

The Trade Deficit: Still a Mountain

Here’s the big reality check:

Despite this historic rise in exports, Nepal’s trade deficit (the gap between what we import vs. export) is still massive.

Trade deficit in FY 2081/82 (first 10 months):
Rs. 1.26 trillion

That means for every Rs. 1 we earn by selling to other countries, we’re spending Rs. 6 to import goods.

Yes, we still buy six times more than we sell.

So what does this mean?

It means:

• We’re still heavily dependent on foreign goods.
• The growth in exports hasn’t fundamentally fixed our economy.
• And unless we start producing things ourselves, this growth is a temporary high, not a structural shift.

Where Do We Go from Here? From Middleman to Maker

So far, we’ve unpacked the full story:

• Yes, exports grew.
• But the biggest chunk of that growth came from products Nepal didn’t really make.
• Our traditional exports; the things that are genuinely Nepali, haven’t grown nearly as much.
• Imports are still rising, and the trade deficit remains huge.

So, what now?

How does Nepal go from celebrating re-exports to actually building a self-sustaining, export-driven economy?

Let’s talk about solutions. Real ones.

1. Invest in Real Manufacturing

Instead of just processing and passing along imported goods, Nepal needs to make more things from scratch.

That means:

• Helping local industries scale up; from textiles to furniture to processed foods.
• Providing tax breaks, subsidies, and better financing for factories.
• Encouraging local production of raw materials (so we’re not dependent on imports even for basics).

We have raw potential in areas like:

• Agro-processing (tea, spices, fruit products)
• Light manufacturing (garments, electrical goods)
• Niche exports (handicrafts, herbal cosmetics, pashmina)

2. Back the Farmers and Small Exporters

Right now, most policies favor large trading houses, not the thousands of farmers growing cardamom, ginger, turmeric, and tea.

What they need:

• Better infrastructure to store, package, and transport goods.
• Easier access to export markets and trade fairs.
• More government focus on branding Nepali-origin products abroad.

Because the truth is: a 10% increase in cardamom exports helps way more people than a 9000% spike in re-exported soybean oil.

3. Tighten Rules on What Qualifies as “Nepali Export”

This one’s key.

Right now, as long as something passes through a Nepali business, it can get counted as an export, even if it wasn’t produced here.

We need better customs classification and a clear “rules of origin” policy that:

• Distinguishes real exports from repackaged ones
• Prevents misuse of duty-free access from India
• Helps promote truly Nepali products

4. Tell the Right Story

The narrative we push “Made in Nepal, Made for the World”, should reflect the efforts of real producers, not just smart arbitrage.

Yes, it’s okay to celebrate success. But we need to be honest about where it’s coming from.

Let’s not let short-term numbers blind us to long-term goals.

Here’s what we need to keep in mind:

You can’t build an economy on oil you didn’t make.
You can only build it on industries you grow, nurture, and sustain.

And that’s the path Nepal needs to take if we’re serious about creating jobs, strengthening local production, and reducing dependency on imports.

So, What Really Counts as Progress?

Let’s be clear: this isn’t about being negative. It’s not about blaming the government, or business houses, or anyone trying to make the best out of a tough economy.

It’s about being honest.

Because if we don’t understand the real story behind the numbers, we’ll keep solving the wrong problems.

Yes, Nepal exported goods worth Rs. 218 billion in just 10 months. That’s a record.
But here’s the question we should be asking:

How much of that was truly made in Nepal, by Nepali hands, using Nepali raw materials, creating Nepali jobs?

The answer, unfortunately, is: not enough.

The Illusion of Growth

Right now, our biggest export is an illusion; a number pumped up by products we don’t produce, fueled by trade loopholes, and completely dependent on another country’s goodwill.

That’s not sustainable. It’s not resilient. And it’s not the kind of growth that transforms a country.

Because if India tweaks its trade rules tomorrow, that Rs. 218 billion can vanish like it was never there.

What Real Progress Looks Like:

• When a weaver in Bhaktapur sells her carpets in Germany.
• When a ginger farmer in Ilam exports organic powder to Dubai.
• When a Nepali garment brand makes it to the shelves in Tokyo.
• When small factories create jobs that let people stay in Nepal instead of migrating abroad.

That’s the kind of growth that sticks. That builds communities. That makes us truly proud to say, “Made in Nepal.”

Final Thoughts

Export growth is good, but let’s not mistake motion for progress.

Let’s shift the focus:

• From quantity to quality.
• From headlines to the hard work behind the scenes.
• From re-exporting someone else’s product to proudly building our own.

Because Rs. 218 billion sounds great.

But a strong, self-reliant economy? That’s priceless.

Additional Resources: 

• Nepal Rastra Bank Finally Has a Governor. Or Does It? 
• New Governor, New Momentum: How NEPSE Index Reacted 
• Why EVs Are Stuck at Customs: The Role of BYD Nepal and Dealers 
• Unilever Nepal: How A Multinational Has Taken Over Your Home